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Q. What is the Sign Up process?
Review Terms and Select Subscription - On the Signup page, please review our Terms and select your subscription choice.
Pay - A checkout box will open once you click on the subscription button. Please enter the information and make the payment. The charge appears as Graycell Advisors. The email address you entered will be used for login.
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Q. When is the newsletter published?
The monthly newsletter is available on a Sunday evening, either towards the end of the month or near the start of the following month. On a long weekend, the monthly edition is published on Monday evening. The next publication date is provided in the Members Area. An email alert is sent when a new edition is available and for any intramonth updates.
Q. I have not received a login email?
Login details are sent out immediately after payment. Please check the spam box as well and contact us if you have not received login instructions.
Q. What is the Refund Policy?
A first-time subscriber has a 60-day money-back guarantee from the payment date. Thereafter, no full, partial, or prorated refund is issued. A refund is processed to the mode of payment. In the case of a Renewal, there are no refunds.
Q. Is this a recurring subscription and how do I renew?
Subscriptions are not automatically renewed. Once the subscription term expires, you can renew by using the same signup process on our website. Renewals are not refunded.
Q. What does my Subscription cover?
You receive access to the Members Area, where you can view the last three monthly issues, intramonth updates when available, a portfolio tracking spreadsheet, and other relevant content like how to use the service.
Q. Where do I log in to access my subscriptions?
Access to the Members Area login pages is available from the homepage.
To access Prudent Small Cap, you can log in here.
To access Prudent Biotech, you can log in here.
To access Prudent Healthcare, you can log in here.
Q. How do I make a payment?
On the Sign Up page, you can select the subscription plan and click the button. That will open up a checkout window where you can enter the credit card information. We use Stripe to process our credit card transactions. The information you enter is passed through a secure SSL layer to Stripe for further processing.
Q. What forms of payment do you accept?
The checkout process accepts credit or debit cards. We also accept PayPal. If you wish to use payment services like Zelle, or a wire transfer, please let us know and we will send the instructions.
Q. Can you offer personal advice on stocks and are you a licensed broker?
We are not a registered investment advisor and cannot give individual investment advice. Our newsletter service must be considered general and informational. We share our model portfolio, and it is up to you or your financial advisor to determine its relevance and how to use it.
Q. Are the model portfolio stocks volatile and risky, and can one lose the investment?
Equity investments carry inherent risk, potentially leading to minor, substantial, or total loss. The biotech industry is notably volatile, with a higher risk of a substantial or total loss compared to the broader stock market. This volatility stems from the binary nature of the industry, where trial results can have significant impacts. While diversification across eight positions in the model portfolio helps mitigate individual stock risk, it does not provide the same level of diversification as the over 250 stock Nasdaq Biotechnology Index, resulting in expected volatility exceeding the industry benchmark.
We aim to select companies with strong growth potential for the model portfolio. However, sharp downward movements can occur during market stress. This aggressive investing style may not be suitable for everyone. If considering participation in fast-moving stocks like those in the model portfolio, it is prudent to allocate no more than 25% of your entire risky investment portfolio to this segment. This percentage may vary based on individual circumstances or advice from your financial advisor, aiming for a balanced approach to this promising yet risky segment. Our back-tested performance history reflects this risk-reward tradeoff, further details of which can be viewed in the Performance section.
Q. How do I build out a portfolio?
The Members Area has a guide on how to use the model portfolio service. Briefly speaking, there are 3-ways to build out the portfolio. First, you can consider buying the entire model portfolio as it exists. Second, you can consider buying only the new positions when these are added to the portfolio. Third, you may consider buying a portion of the model portfolio instantly, and layer-in new positions when these are added to the model portfolio. The merits and risks of each approach are discussed in the guide.
Q. How is the portfolio diversified?
The model portfolio is diversified across eight biotech positions. When we begin with an all-cash position, we allocate 1/8th of the portfolio to each stock position. Over time, portfolio appreciation and monthly repositioning can skew that 1/8th number.
Do not succumb to the temptation of cherry-picking only 2-3 stocks from the model portfolio and invest the entire risk capital therein. Diversification is essential to diminishing security-specific risk. If there are eight stocks in the portfolio and 2 of them lose 25% each, the total portfolio loss is only 5% and not 25% or 50%, assuming other portfolio stocks do not change in price during that period. The model portfolio is concentrated and thus will never have the same diversification benefit as the over 250 stock Nasdaq Biotechnology Index. But, this concentration has the advantage of allowing each stock to have a much larger impact on the total portfolio return.
Q. How do you prevent prices from being influenced by subscribers buying and selling around the same time?
One of the portfolio parameters is the liquidity or volume traded in a stock. Stocks that cross a certain minimum volume threshold are considered for the model portfolio. We make adjustments to minimize movements that appear to be due to position recommendations in the model portfolio. We also limit the subscriber base and cap it when needed to avoid price swings.
Q. How long is a position held in the model portfolio?
Our newsletters are monthly publications. Thus, a stock is held at least for one month. There are no rules regarding how long a position is held. Typically, positions end up being held from one to six months. But, there have been many occasions when a model portfolio position is held for over a year.
Q. Will a member portfolio performance mirror the model portfolio’s?
Member portfolio performance should be similar but not exact to the model portfolio performance. Actual performance results achieved by members will differ from results reported for the model portfolio for many reasons, including:
- model portfolio positions are initiated and closed at the opening prices of the first trading day after publication. These prices can be better or worse when the member decides to place such trades.
- model portfolio prices are recorded at the beginning of the month, while new members may join during the month, at which time prices may be different (higher or lower).
- the model portfolio position sizes can be different from those of a member's portfolio, which will have some impact on the performance.
- model portfolio performance results may not reflect trading commissions and a variety of exchange fees.
Q. Over what period should a member evaluate the performance of the model portfolio?
The model doesn’t seek short-term performance. So monthly performance is not the best measure. There is a real possibility that you will be down in the first months as you set your positions up and build out the portfolio. In addition, market volatility is hard to predict, and sudden changes in market conditions can adversely affect performance for that period. We believe the member must have a 3-year time horizon to grow a portfolio.
Graycell Advisors, and its affiliates, officers, employees, families, and all other related parties, collectively referred to as ‘Graycell’ and/or ‘we,’ is a publisher of financial information, such as the Prudent Small Cap, Prudent Biotech, and Prudent Healthcare newsletters. We are not a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Historical performance figures provided are hypothetical, unaudited, and based on our proprietary analysis and system performance, back-tested over an extended period. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have limitations, and unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading and consequently do not involve the financial risk of actual trading. The performance results obtained are intended for illustrative purposes only. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. All stock and related investments have a degree of risk, which can result in a significant or total loss. In addition, the biotech industry and small caps are characterized by much higher risk and volatility than the general stock market. Information contained herein is general and does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors. If you decide to invest in any of the stocks of the companies mentioned in the newsletters, samples, alerts, etc., sent to you or available on our websites, you can and may lose some or all of your investment. You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. Use of the information herein is at one's own risk. We are simply sharing the results of our model. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, and we are not liable nor do we assume any liability or responsibility for losses incurred as a result of any information provided or not provided or not made available on time, herein or on our website or using any other medium. We cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of any information furnished by us. We may or may not have existing positions in the stocks mentioned in our reports. Our models are proprietary and/or can be licensed and can be changed or revised based on our discretion at any time without any notification. Subscribers and investors should always conduct their due diligence with any potential investment and consider obtaining professional advice before making an investment decision.
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